West Africa
Mali & Burkina Faso: Both experienced coups after leaders failed to manage corruption, insecurity, and electoral credibility. Citizens lost faith in ballots, turning to the military as a “reset button.”
Nigeria: While coups are now rare, election rigging and thuggery remain concerns. Violence during campaigns and ballot snatching undermine democratic progress.
Central Africa
Cameroon: President Paul Biya has ruled for over 40 years, often accused of manipulating elections. The absence of credible alternation fuels resentment and sporadic unrest.
DR Congo: Past elections were marred by fraud and violence, leading to contested legitimacy and cycles of instability.
Southern Africa
Zimbabwe: Robert Mugabe’s long rule was sustained by election rigging and intimidation. His eventual removal by the military in 2017 shows how manipulation can end in abrupt, destabilizing transitions.
Eswatini: Though technically an absolute monarchy, suppression of opposition and lack of democratic space has led to violent protests.
East Africa
Uganda: President Museveni’s repeated re-elections have been criticized for fraud and intimidation. Opposition figures face harassment, showing how manipulation entrenches authoritarianism.
Kenya: Electoral violence in 2007 highlighted how rigging and ethnic mobilization can push a country to the brink of civil war.
Lessons Across the Continent
Rigging breeds coups: Where elections are manipulated, coups often emerge as “corrective” measures, though they rarely solve the deeper problems.
Violence delegitimizes democracy: Thuggery and intimidation silence opposition, but they also delegitimize leaders who win through fear.
Institutions matter more than individuals: Countries with stronger electoral commissions and independent courts (e.g., Ghana) show resilience against manipulation.
Conclusion
The Guinea-Bissau coup is part of a continental warning: when leaders manipulate elections for second terms, they trade short-term power for long-term instability. From Mali to Zimbabwe, the pattern is clear—rigged ballots often end in barracks rule. The way forward lies in strengthening institutions, enforcing term limits, and ensuring elections are genuinely free and fair.
By Abdulwahab Muhammad Bauchi SSA communication
