By Alphapressmedia
Politics is often described as the art of timing, calculation and survival. Yet, recent developments within the ruling APC have demonstrated that not every political calculation produces the desired outcome. For a number of lawmakers and political actors who abandoned their former parties in search of political security, the outcome has been a harsh lesson in the realities of power.Many of those who defected did so under the weight of incumbency, convinced that aligning with the ruling party would guarantee their political future. They were persuaded that proximity to power would translate into automatic access to party tickets and electoral opportunities. Events have shown otherwise.While some opposition figures resisted pressure to defect and instead chose to strengthen alternative political platforms, others hurried into the APC believing they had found a safe political harbour. What they discovered was a party with entrenched interests, established structures and long-standing stakeholders unwilling to surrender their positions to late arrivals.The aftermath of the party primaries has exposed the risks of that decision. Several defectors who anticipated easy victories found themselves edged out by politicians who had spent years building influence within the party. Some were defeated at the primaries, while others reportedly struggled even to secure participation in the selection process.Their predicament highlights an enduring reality of Nigerian politics: electoral success cannot always be transferred from one platform to another. Political influence built within a party structure often carries greater weight than the status of a newcomer, regardless of the office that newcomer currently occupies.The experience of former Labour Party lawmakers offers a particularly revealing example. The 2023 elections witnessed an unprecedented political movement that propelled many candidates into office on the strength of a broader national wave. However, as internal crises engulfed the party, a number of those beneficiaries sought refuge elsewhere.Their argument was straightforward. They claimed that joining the ruling party would enable them to attract greater federal presence and development projects to their constituencies. Critics, however, viewed the defections differently, seeing them as acts of political expediency rather than ideological conviction.Whatever the motivation, many of those calculations have failed to deliver the expected rewards. Instead of securing political futures, some defectors now find themselves without tickets, without influence and without a clear path forward.The situation has also exposed the limitations of political opportunism. Parties may welcome defectors for strategic reasons, particularly when numerical strength is required. Yet welcoming a politician into a party is not the same as handing over its structures, influence or electoral opportunities. The latter must still be earned through loyalty, organization and grassroots engagement.As the country moves closer to the 2027 elections, the lessons are becoming increasingly clear. Political parties remain vehicles of ambition, but they are also communities built over time. Those who underestimate that reality often discover that crossing over is easier than becoming accepted.For many of the affected politicians, the choices ahead are difficult. They can remain within the APC and work to rebuild their standing, challenge the outcomes through party mechanisms, or seek relevance through alternative political alignments. None of these options offers an easy route back to power.Ultimately, their story serves as a cautionary tale. Political survival requires more than proximity to power. It requires patience, structure, loyalty and an accurate reading of the political environment. Those who mistake a temporary wave for a permanent foundation often learn that lesson the hard way.As the dust settles from the primaries, one conclusion stands out: in politics, there are few guarantees. A politician may abandon one platform in pursuit of certainty, only to discover that certainty was never available in the first place.End
